I find our cognitive limitations to be interesting – fascinating, even. It seems that we can only hold so many ideas at any one time. Introduce a new one beyond our capability to hold, and we either have the stress of living beyond our capabilities (which can be good, short term) or we need to let an old idea fade.
I say that because I’ve run across someone with a profoundly important idea for this moment in time in which we live, and he has made some vital and important predictions in the past using that idea. But, he also has a history of plugging that idea into too many areas and getting negative results. That man is Harry Dent, and he has something to say about the demographic shock that begins this year.
By the way, as you take an inventory of the important ideas in your life, there is one idea that must always be first and reign supreme – Jesus Christ. Nothing should ever compete in your mind for that space – ever.
And, please be careful about the junk that you allow to take up space in your head. Really, it’s important. Garbage in… garbage out.
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Demographic Shock – 2014
Harry Dent has a head for demographics, and he was able to identify the impact of demographics that led to Japan’s Lost Decade, the Recession of 1990 to 1992, a rather large Bull Market and the 2008 credit crisis and stock market crash.
He now identifies a demographic crisis that starts this year, and will dwarf all the other crises that we have faced, so far. And, he says that his demographic model tells him that this year will be the beginning of a Great Crash that won’t really end until 2019.
Hearing him mention that time frame made my ears ring. That’s the time frame that I’m looking at, also. Furthermore, his ideas about demographics make a lot of sense.
Harry Dent’s Goofs
Having said that, demographics don’t exist in a vacuum. There are many, many other issues out there, and his models don’t really take them into account. That’s why he goofed when he wrote “The Roaring 2000s”, followed by “The Next Great Bubble Boom: How to Profit from the Greatest Boom in History: 2006-2010.”
Does that mean that his ideas should be relegated to the dust bin?
No, not if they make sense. Just don’t get carried away when he launches out into areas that his models do not, and should not encompass. Furthermore, brilliant analysts make brilliant mistakes. This is how the investment world works.
Here is what Fabian Calvo has to say about Harry Dent, Jr’s checkered predictions:
YouTube shortlink: http://youtu.be/i3yzL-uqEk8
In the show notes of the above video, Mr. Calvo provides two links to articles about Harry Dent’s mistakes:
But, Harry Is RIGHT
So yes, Harry Dent made some bad calls in the past, but it doesn’t mean that he doesn’t have a profoundly important idea. Here’s the video that made me think:
YouTube shortlink: http://youtu.be/u93m5X7hg8o
In the above interview, Harry makes an interesting point. Economists do NOT study demographics, and then Harry goes on to say that he is NOT an economist. (Which is actually a point in his favor)
For those of you who think he would have done better to be an economist, let me point out that economists have a lousy track record when predicting the future – far worse than Harry’s. Far worse.
So, what is he predicting?
Harry Dent’s Predictions
People losing faith in governments and everything. Deflation. Massive deflation. He’s somewhat bearish on gold, but he’s not really sure.
I find his point about people losing faith in government to be very important, because the 300 year civil-war/civil-unrest cycle that begins to hit us this year also correlates with this idea. And, this lack of ‘faith in government’ will cause a massive boost in a desire for a One World Government. But, that’s not his most important point.
He’s talking massive, massive deflation. He’s talking about the Great Depression on steriods. And, I think that he’s probably right.
Is he allowing for the capital flows that will flood into the United States as people seek for a safe haven for their money?
I’m not sure that he is, so his cyclical models may be off by a year, or so. But, that doesn’t change the underlying demographic fundamentals.
Get OUT Of The Stock Market
You MUST get out of the US stock market. You must. If you are in, get out now. And, while you’re at it, get your money OUT of the United States. And, get yourself out, too.
This Great Depresson On Steroids (GDOS?) will destroy America in ways that will blow your mind. And, I don’t think that Harry Dent really gets that part, either.
This is the end of the American Empire, and the beginning of war and upheaval everywhere. You do NOT want to be caught in the blast. So, get out of ground zero.
Now, should you buy gold if deflation is coming?
Silver And Gold
During the greatest deflationary period in US history, gold went UP, not down. Gold is absolutely a hedge against inflation AND deflation. In fact, it’s probably a better hedge against deflation than inflation.
Now, would you make more money holding a wad of cash, during a deflationary crash, like Harry describes?
You might. But, you’re assuming that the dollar will survive. You’re also assuming that the world will continue to accept the dollar. You’d have to assume a lot of things, and assumptions in the face of disaster are dangerous.
Get out of stocks and bonds, and buy physical-in-your-hands gold. Better yet, buy as much silver as you can carry and as much gold as you can afford.
Seriously, folks. This year is the turning point. The stock market might still go up and up from this point on – for another few months. And it might not. But, that shouldn’t matter to you.
The Rules Of Investment
Since disaster is completely inevitable, let me remind you of the first rule of investing:
Never. Lose. Money.
Here’s the second rule:
It’s better to be YEARS too early than five minutes late.
Once the market turns, your savings and your financial future will be destroyed before you can escape. You will never, EVER be able to time the crash that is coming.
- Get out, now.
- Buy, silver and gold.
Better yet, do everything that I talk about here:
You Must Help Others
Please also remember that there are those who would love to prepare and don’t have the money to do so. I get emails from people that are living paycheck-to-paycheck, but do not have the ability to do what I am asking them to do. And, it breaks my heart to see them.
This is where you come in. If God has blessed you with wealth and an understanding of what is coming, then it is now your job to help those who cannot help themselves.
Are you ready to do that?
God said that when you provide for the needs of your brothers and sisters in Christ, you give to Him.
If you ignore their needs, and do not seek out the needs of those in the family of God…
…well, Matthew 25 indicates that there is a place for those who do that.
Life is short. Eternity is long.
Which would YOU rather invest in?
Are you ready for this?
(That’s a link. Do more than just think about it.)
note – I am not offering financial or disaster preparation advice in a professional capacity. These are merely my own thoughts on what I would do in these situations.
If you find a flaw in my reasoning, have a question, or wish to add your own viewpoint, leave a comment on the website. Your input is truly welcome.
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